Jim Callis:
Hi, everyone. Glad to be here
and take some college/draft questions. We've had a ton of college and draft
(and high school) preview content over at baseballamerica.com recently, so check that out.
farmstros: Welcome, Jim,
thanks for taking time to talk to the Farmstros Village
Ryan: Jim, would you prefer
to go with an established college arm like Mark Appel over a high upside
highschooler such as Austin Meadows?
Jim Callis:
Glad to be here, Mike ...
Ryan, I think, you have to evaluate the players for who you are and not worry
about the demographic. If you're picking at the top of the draft, you're
usually a dreadful team that's not going to contend in a year or so. So to me,
you have to take whoever the better player is in the long run. Appel vs.
Meadows is a tossup at the moment, I'd lean toward Meadows.
Ryan: Who do you view as the
best college arm? Appel, Stanek or Manaea?
farmstros: Jim, did we
lose you?
Jim Callis:
I'd say Appel. Those are the
top three arms in the draft right now. Appel gets the edge for me because he's
got the deepest repertoire.
Jim Callis:
Sorry, working from home and
had an unexpected delivery of a rug I had to go deal with. Back now.
farmstros: I'm curious
if you have any thoughts on who the 8 players the Astros are looking at might
be? Hope the rug is the right color and size.
Jim Callis:
Rug is being stored here by
my father-in-law, not anything we have space to use ... I talked to the Astros
and wasn't told individual names but got the impression it was the same guys at
the top of everyone's list (in no order: Appel, Manaea, Stanek, Meadows,
Frazier, Moran and a couple of others). Also got the impression that they will
expand the search as needed.
Ryan: From the Astros
standpoint, do you think they are in greater need of an arm or a bat at the top
of the draft?
Jim Callis:
They really need everything.
Their outfield is dreadful so Austin Meadows would be a nice fit. But their
rotation is dreadful, too, so Mark Appel would make sense too. They should take
whomever they think is the best player.
Ryan: Do you see Houston going the unconventional route again at the top of
the draft to better utilize their money? If so, who could it be?
Jim Callis:
I don't think the Astros took
Correa just so they could save money. I think they took him because he was in
the group at the top of their draft board (he was our No. 2 prospect) and he
allowed them to save money. It's too early to say who might fit that profile of
being a legitimate top-of-the-draft talent and allow them to use money
elsewhere.
Darin: Jim, when you say
"their outfield is dreadful" are you referring to their MLB roster or
minor league depth?
Jim Callis:
Their MLB roster. They have
some prospects, but it's not like Springer, Santana, Grossman and Phillips
guarantee they're going to have three quality outfielders a couple of years
down the road.
Ryan: Beyond picking 1-1 this
year, is the draft deep enough that Houston could pick up some impact talent through the later
rounds?
Jim Callis:
Even in a mediocre draft--and
this is a mediocre draft--there's talent throughout. Last year's draft was
nothing special either, and the Astros got Correa, McCullers, Fontana, Rodgers, Ruiz, Phillips, etc.
Joker: Who should I be
looking for if I go see Stanford and Rice? Also who are the best players to go
see in the Astros College Classic in a couple of weeks?
Jim Callis:
Besides Appel, Stanford has
two other first-team All-Americans who will figure prominently in the draft in
first baseman Brian Ragira and outfielder Austin Wilson. Righthander A.J.
Vanegas could pitch his way into the first round, too. Rice's best prospects
for 2013 are pitchers Austin Kubitza and John Simms, who both have something to
prove after so-so summers in the Cape Cod League. As for the College Classic, North Carolina has the best hitter in the draft (Colin Moran), California has the best catcher in the draft (Andrew Knapp) and
Texas A&M may have the fastest player in the draft (Krey Bratsen).
Joker: I was thinking of
going to see the SWAC teams at the Urban Invitational. Any prospects there?
Does Southern have another Rickie Weeks or Fred Lewis?
Jim Callis:
Southern has righthander Jose
DeLeon, who owns a 90-93 mph fastball and is the best prospect in the SWAC this
year.
Guest: With the current
regime's history with Austin Wilson, do you think that he could be in the mix
for 1/1? What do you think he needs to show to prove worthy of that kind of
pick?
farmstros: Can you shed
some light on this regime's history with Austin Wilson?
Jim Callis:
I think that would be a
stretch. He's huge and very athletic for his size, but he strikes out way too
much for me to consider taking him at 1-1. To me, he's an even bigger risk to
hit than George Springer was. Springer went 11th, that's about the same area
where Wilson should go ... Jeff Luhnow and Co. drafted him in the
12th round out of high school, when he was considered unsignable.
Ryan: Jim, sorry if you've
answered this elsewhere previously, do you rate prospects using the 20-80
scale?
Jim Callis:
We do in the Prospect
Handbook, based on realistic ceiling (and ask a factor). We don't elsewhere --
I think for our purposes, scouting reports get too jargony if you start throwing
55s and 60s and 65s all over the place.
Dan: What role do you see
Marc Krauss filling with the Astros in 2013? Does the Carter trade essentially
keep Krauss in AAA all season (barring injury, of course)? Thanks, Jim!
Jim Callis:
I don't think any of the
Astros' options for the outfield or DH are sure things, so if Krauss hits, I
think he could become a regular for Houston this year. Have always liked him a little bit.
Ryan: With the Astros minors
increasing in depth, where could you see Appel or Meadows slot into their top
10?
Jim Callis:
As high as No. 2, behind
Correa, depending on how this season plays out. Either of those guys has the
potential to have a greater impact than a first baseman (Jonathan Singleton,
who was our Astros No. 2 prospect this offseason).
Guest: Is 1/1 rich for Moran?
Sure, the hit tool is nice, but what kind of value do you get beyond that?
Jim Callis:
I think that's a bit rich.
He's a tremendous hitter, but it might not be more than average power and
adequate third-base defense. I think you need more than that at 1-1. Not that
you're worrying about having too much talent at one position at this point, but
Moran isn't much different from what the Astros think Rio Ruiz can be.
Guest: Can you compare Austin
Meadows to Byron Buxton from last year?
Jim Callis:
Quick version: Meadows is
more polished at the same stage, Buxton has a little more upside for me.
Joker: What are the chances
of Rule 5 picks Nate Freiman and Joshua Fields sticking in Houston? Did you like those picks?
Jim Callis:
Pretty high, because there's
not much talent on the big league roster. I did like the picks. Fields was an
obvious Rule 5 target, a Triple-A reliever who had a lot of success in the
second half of 2012. Was kind of surprised the Red Sox didn't protect him.
We'll see on Freiman, but his power made him worth taking.
Guest: Do you see Delino
Deshields reaching AA this season and what kind of numbers do you see him
putting up? Chance at Top 50 next year?
Jim Callis:
I do see him reaching
Double-A, maybe even to start the year if the Astros get aggressive. If he
spent the whole year in Double-A, I'd say .275/.375/.400 with 85 steals. If he
has the kind of season, he could make the Top 50.
farmstros:
How do think Appel's being a senior will affect his draft status?
Jim Callis:
I
don't think much at all. How he performs this spring will matter much more.
It's hard to fathom Appel turning down another team this summer and re-entering
the 2014 draft, but he's also as talented as any prospect in this crop and
advised by the Boras Corp., so he's not going to roll over and sign just
because he's a senior. Unless he tanks, he'll get more than the $3.8 mil he
turned down from the Pirates. I don't think that necessarily will mean he made
the right decision. I think it will ultimately cost him money to have delayed
his pro career by a year.
farmstros: Some readers
are in Corpus...are there any prospects to keep an eye on at the tournament at
Whataburger Field in a few weeks: TAMU-Corpus Christi, Iowa, Oklahoma
and New Mexico?
Jim Callis:
Yes. Oklahoma has potential first-rounders in LHP Dillon Overton
and RHP Jonathan Gray, and another LHP to watch in Billy Waltrip. New Mexico has 3B D.J. Peterson, a likely first-rounder, and
Mitch Garver, one of the best college catchers in a thin crop.
Ryan: If Carlos Rodon was
eligible for the 2013 draft, would he be the clear choice to go #1 overall?
farmstros: We have about
10 more minutes until we wrap up.
Jim Callis:
Not head and shoulders above
everyone else, but Rodon would be the likely No. 1 pick. I'd take him over
Appel and Meadows.
Guest
With Drew Ward entering the
draft early, in what range do you see him going? How are the tools compared to
the top guys (Meadows/Frazier/Smith)?
Jim Callis:
You know, we've never gotten
definite confirmation that Ward will be eligible a year earlier than expected,
though I did have a team tell me they expect he will. He offers a lot of power,
but I've also been told he's been overhyped. Sounds like more of a second- or
third-rounder than a top-10-pick type. I'll admit, I haven't beared down on him
much yet because he's a 2014.
Ryan: Does next years draft
project to better or still mediocre?
Jim Callis:
I don't bear down on the HS
guys until it gets closer. College crop doesn't seem noticeably better.
Guest: Any chance Clint
Frazier ends up being taken before Austin Meadows? How close are they rated as
of now?
Jim Callis:
Sure. Frazier isn't as big as
Meadows, but they're comparable talents. They're neck and neck as the best HS
guys in the 2013 crop.
farmstros: I saw that
you wrote somewhere about when those two guys are facing off in Loganville, Ga. When is that again?
Jim Callis:
March 12.
Guest: Do you think more
teams will follow the Rays lead and go over-budget with international signings?
If so, do we lose the advantage MLB intended?
farmstros: We've got two
more questions that have been submitted and then we'll close.
Jim Callis:
I think the Rays did that
because they liked the guys they landed and didn't love this year's crop. I
don't think you'll see a lot of teams do this, but the penalties are far less
severe than those for exceeding the draft pools. So I think you may see a team
occasionally exceed the international pool, but I'm not sure we'll ever see a
team exceed the draft pool. And I think we'll have an international draft
sooner rather than later (maybe even for 2014) anyway.
Guest: How is this year's
international crop? Who are some names to watch for?
Jim Callis:
I'll have to take a pass on
that one. I do almost nothing internationally. That's Ben Badler's domain for
Baseball America, and he said there's no single overwhelming talent
this year.
Guest: Barring free
agency/trades, when do you think we'll begin to see the light at the end of the
tunnel? When do you think we'll be competitive again?
Jim Callis:
I'll say 2015. It's going to
take at least a couple of years. But if you want some cause for optimism, Jeff
Luhnow and Co. have an impressive track record with the Cardinals, and they're
making some nice moves in Houston.
farmstros: Many thanks,
Jim for taking some time out of your schedule to chat. We appreciate it. Enjoy
the baseball season.
farmstros: The replay of
this chat will be available shortly, so tell your friends. And Follow the
Astros of the Future with us. www.farsmtros.blogspot.com
Dan: Thanks, Jim!
Jim Callis:
Thanks, guys. I enjoyed it.
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